Oscar Predictions : (Not that the Oscars Mean Anything)

Last year of the 19 predictions I made I was right on 12, missing 7 (mostly due to overvaluing The King’s Speech). Remember, the Oscars only accidentally ever get the best movie of the year, most times it’s the dreck that gets the award. As one film critic ranks the factors for Oscar voters:

  • how much money the studio spent marketing the film
  • political trendiness
  • the popularity of the values it obviously endorses
  • audience accessibility
  • celebrity popularity
  • and absence of involvement by anyone currently inspiring Hollywood’s scowl of disapproval
  • Some consideration may also be given to the actual artistry on display in the film
We’ll see how well I can read the tea leaves this year. 

Full List of the 2012 Oscar Nominations Here

Best Original Song (in order of best to terrible)

“Man or Muppet”, The Muppets
“Real in Rio”, Rio

Sound Editing
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Drive

Sound Mixing
Moneyball
Hugo
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Best Visual Effects (in order of Most Stupid Fun)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Real Steel
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Hugo

Film Editing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
The Artist
The Descendants

Makeup (in order of Who Needed it the Most)
The Iron Lady
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Original Score 
War Horse
The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Art Direction
War Horse
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Best Actor
Damien Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Supporting Actor (in order of Most Likely to Stink in a Shakespearean Play)
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warriors
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara, Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Melissa McCarthy, The Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Best Picture (in order of Most Drecky to Least Drecky)
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
War Horse
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Artist
The Tree of Life

Best Director (in order of Most Likely to Win)
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Some Snark and Commentary:

Best Cinematography is the only horse I have in this race as being resigned that Tree of Life cannot win best movie. I can see War Horse making a run with its pretty horse and purple nobility but if Tree of Life does not win then the Oscars again again again prove they mean nothing again. I’m going with another personal fav by backing Rango in Best Animated film. Better than anything Pixar’s done since The Incredibles (though there’s a place in my heart for the first half of Wall-E). I’m bucking the favorite for Best Actress as another Streep win is essentially meaningless. She’s not that good, Amy Adams has outdone Streep twice with less to work with in Doubt and Julie and Julia. The next in line is Viola Davis, but part of me thinks Michelle Williams will surprise. Seems racist to pick Octavia Spencer as best supporting actress, but since Chastain wasn’t nominated for her role in Tree of Life she’s the easy pick. Best Picture seems to be between The Artist and Hugo, but I’m riding The Descendants pretty hard…Best Director should be Malick, but he doesn’t cater to the Hollywood crowd and he doesn’t make easy movies, so he’s out. Smart money is on Scorsleazy or Hazanavicius (who won the Director’s Guild Award), but I’m going add a darkhorse to that and say Woody can win it. If Woody shows up to the ceremony I’ll put twenty bucks on it.

My picks below:


Best Original Song : “Man or Muppet”, The Muppets
Sound Editing : War Horse
Sound Mixing : War Horse
Best Visual Effects :Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Film Editing : The Descendants
Makeup : The Iron Lady
Best Original Score : The Artist
Art Direction : Hugo
Costume Design : Hugo
Best Adapted Screenplay : The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay : Midnight in Paris
Cinematography : The Tree of Life
Best Animated Film : Rango
Best Actor : George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Supporting Actor : Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Actress :Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actress : Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Picture : The Artist
Best Director : Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

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