The Nominees (here is a full list of nominations):

Performance by an ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE (in order of Best Looking):
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”

Performance By an ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE (in order of Best to Befriend):

Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”

Performance by an ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE (in order of Most One-Note Performance):

Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Performance by an ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE (in order of Worst to Befriend):

Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”

Achievement in DIRECTING (in order of Most Deserving):

“The Social Network” David Fincher
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Fighter” David O. Russell

Best MOTION PICTURE of the year (in order of Least Likely to Win):

“Toy Story 3″
“127 Hours”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“True Grit”
“The Fighter”
“Winter’s Bone”
“Black Swan”
“The Social Network”
“The King’s Speech”

click below for predictions:

Winner Best Sound Mixing : The King’s Speech
Winner Best Sound Editing : Inception
Winner Best Visual Effects : Inception
Winner Best Art Direction : The King’s Speech
Winner Best Costume Design : The King’s Speech
Winner Best Cinematography : True Grit
Winner Best Film Editing : The Social Network
Winner Best Original Song :  “If I Rise” from 127 Hours
Winner Best Score : The Social Network
Winner Best Adapted Screenplay : The Social Network
Winner Best Original Screenplay :  The King’s Speech
Winner Best Animated Feature :  Toy Story 3
Winner Best Supporting Actress :  Helena Bonham Cater
Winner Best Supporting Actor :  Christian Bale
Winner Best Actress :  Natalie Portman
Winner Best Director : David Fincher
Winner Best Movie : The King’s Speech

Snark n Commentary:

  • Jeff Bridges will probably deserve an Oscar for every movie for the rest of his career. I would be shocked if Eisenberg is ever nominated again. I’m super impressed by performances like James Franco, able to captivate an audience all by himself. Even Tom Hanks needed a volleyball to pull it off back in Cast Away.
  • The Best Actress category is one of the strongest in the last ten years. I thought Natalie Portman did that one thing she did the entire movie long quite well.
  • I’m going against received knowledge and back HBC in the Supporting Actress role. Melissa Leo is the frontrunner, but I’m banking on The King’s Speech winning a few extra awards for its participants.
  • It’s hard to split the Best Movie/Director awards, but TKS is much more Oscarly than TSN.
  • If Roger Deakins doesn’t win the award for best cinematography…then…then…well, the Oscars will continue to not mean anything.
  • Inception should do well in the junk drawer Oscars, but it does have a decent chance at Original Screenplay despite the fact that it ripped off a Duck Tales comicbook.